Job Market Paper

Do NGOs Matter for Development? Evidence from Pakistan with Attique Ur Rehman.  

(Winner of the Weiss/NEUDC Distinguished Paper Award, 2024) (World Bank Development Impact blog)

Abstract: Despite the growing presence of NGOs in developing countries, there remains a critical gap in empirical evidence regarding their effectiveness. Our study addresses this gap by leveraging a natural experiment: an unexpected 25% decrease in the number of NGOs operating in Punjab, Pakistan. Using an event study approach, we compare regions with high and low proportions of NGO closures to assess the impact of NGO presence on key development indicators. We find that NGO closures reduce household investment in education, particularly affecting girls and urban households. Additionally, the reduction in health-specific NGO activity decreases prenatal care access and immunization for girls, especially in rural areas. Although the government increases its role to compensate, it does not fully replace the services provided by NGOs. The broader regional impacts include diminished economic development, as indicated by reduced night light intensity, increased public discontent, evidenced by more demonstrations and riots, and heightened violence against women, reflected by higher admissions to female shelter homes. These findings underscore that NGOs matter for development and contribute to community welfare and stability.

Works in Progress

Evaluating the Impact of AI-Driven Training on Microenterprises in Pakistan with Attique Ur Rehman. (AEA registry)

Social Networks for Female Microentrepreneurs in Pakistan. (AEA registry)
Project Summary: JPAL Gender and Economic Agency (GEA) Initiative and PEDL Research Grant

Women’s Political Representation and the Adoption of Gender-Equitable Policies

Vaccine Mandates in a Low-Resource Setting: Evidence from Sierra Leone with Rachel Glennerster, Samantha Horn, and Anne Karing.

Publications

What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data with Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, and Cynthia Kinnan. Journal of Globalization and Development, 14(2), 2023. (Ungated version)

Abstract: Not all firms have equal capacity to absorb productive credit. Identifying those with higher potential may have large consequences for productivity. We collect detailed survey data on small- and medium-sized Tanzanian firms who borrow from a large commercial bank, which in turn raises funds via international capital markets. Using machine learning methods to identify predictors of loan growth, we document, first, that we achieve high rates of predictive power. Second, “soft” information (entrepreneurs’ motivations for entrepreneurship and constraints faced) has predictive power over and above administrative data (sector, age, etc.). Third, there is a different and larger set of predictors for women than men, consistent with greater barriers to efficient capital allocation among female entrepreneurs.

Government Trust and Covid-19 Vaccination: The Role of Supply Disruptions and Political Allegiances in Sierra Leone with Anbar Aizenman, Fatu E. Conteh, Rachel Glennerster, Samantha Horn, Desmond M. Kangbai and Anne Karing. American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 113: 647-52, 2023.

Abstract: We use data on the universe of COVID-19 vaccines in Sierra Leone to examine the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination take-up and support for the party in power and whether interruptions to vaccine supply reduced take-up of second doses. We find that COVID-19 vaccine take-up is higher in areas that support the ruling party, but this mirrors long-term vaccination patterns and not the politicization of COVID-19 vaccines. People whose second dose was due just before and after a vaccine stockout had similar second take-up rates (around 50 percent)—that is, delayed access to second doses did not deter eventual take-up.