Works in Progress

Do NGOs Matter for Development? Evidence from Pakistan with Attique Ur Rehman.  

(Winner of the Weiss/NEUDC Distinguished Paper Award, 2024) (World Bank Development Impact blog)

Evaluating the Impact of AI-Driven Training on Microenterprises in Pakistan with Attique Ur Rehman. (AEA registry)

Social Networks for Female Microentrepreneurs in Pakistan. (AEA registry)
Project Summary: JPAL Gender and Economic Agency (GEA) Initiative and PEDL Research Grant

Publications

What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data with Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, and Cynthia Kinnan. Journal of Globalization and Development, 14(2), 2023. (Ungated version)

Abstract: Not all firms have equal capacity to absorb productive credit. Identifying those with higher potential may have large consequences for productivity. We collect detailed survey data on small- and medium-sized Tanzanian firms who borrow from a large commercial bank, which in turn raises funds via international capital markets. Using machine learning methods to identify predictors of loan growth, we document, first, that we achieve high rates of predictive power. Second, “soft” information (entrepreneurs’ motivations for entrepreneurship and constraints faced) has predictive power over and above administrative data (sector, age, etc.). Third, there is a different and larger set of predictors for women than men, consistent with greater barriers to efficient capital allocation among female entrepreneurs.

Government Trust and Covid-19 Vaccination: The Role of Supply Disruptions and Political Allegiances in Sierra Leone with Anbar Aizenman, Fatu E. Conteh, Rachel Glennerster, Samantha Horn, Desmond M. Kangbai and Anne Karing. American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 113: 647-52, 2023.

Abstract: We use data on the universe of COVID-19 vaccines in Sierra Leone to examine the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination take-up and support for the party in power and whether interruptions to vaccine supply reduced take-up of second doses. We find that COVID-19 vaccine take-up is higher in areas that support the ruling party, but this mirrors long-term vaccination patterns and not the politicization of COVID-19 vaccines. People whose second dose was due just before and after a vaccine stockout had similar second take-up rates (around 50 percent)—that is, delayed access to second doses did not deter eventual take-up.